Learning smooth graphs with sparse temporal variations to explore long-term financial trends - Université Paris Lumières
Conference Papers Year : 2024

Learning smooth graphs with sparse temporal variations to explore long-term financial trends

Abstract

The return of inflation raises the issues of assessing cross-dependencies in the interest rates of long-term government bonds. Learning cross-dependencies directly from data is framed here as a graph learning problem that requires to address the issues of bond rates heterogeneous and nonstationary evolutions, with sharp changes along time and across countries, and of managing missing samples. As a first contribution, the present work devises a data driven time-dependent graph for bonds markets, specifically based on risk premia. As a second contribution, it shows the relevance of such constructions when applied to a broad database of 29 countries over 6 decades (1960-2020), that includes the high inflation episode of the 1970s.
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Dates and versions

hal-04731912 , version 1 (11-10-2024)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-04731912 , version 1

Cite

Cécile Bastidon, Myriam Bontonou, Pierre Borgnat, Pablo Jensen, Patrice Abry, et al.. Learning smooth graphs with sparse temporal variations to explore long-term financial trends. 32st European Signal Processing Conference (EUSIPCO), EURASIP, Aug 2024, Lyon, France. ⟨hal-04731912⟩
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